LOBBYISTS SEE TPA VOTE TOTAL FALLING SHORT TODAY

The House will vote today (Thurs.) on extending trade promotion authority to President, regardless of what whip count shows in terms of support, but increasing number of high-tech lobbyists quietly were predicting defeat. Public posturing has been high this week in favor of TPA, with industry leaders holding several rallies. Commerce Dept. Secy. Donald Evans said Tues. that bill would pass, and U.S. Trade Representative Robert Zoellick said Wed. he was optimistic, but “it could go either way.” But poll after poll has shown House Ways & Means Committee Chmn. Thomas (R-Cal.), author of the TPA bill, was 30-50 votes short of passage, and those we spoke with pushing for the bill admitted it was extreme longshot. High-tech community has been near-unanimous in its support of TPA, viewing legislation as way to open up foreign markets at time when industry is struggling.

Finger-pointing has begun even before vote. Some lobbyists we spoke with said President Bush could have been more active in lobbying, and this week could have been in town making public appeals rather than taking trip to Orlando. His lobbying efforts were compared poorly with those of President Clinton several years ago, although White House spokesman Ari Fleischer defended Bush’s efforts, saying President had been pitching TPA in meetings with members since summer.

Other industry lobbyists laid blame at feet of Thomas, who recruited 2 Democratic members of his committee to co-author bill but chose not to work with committee’s ranking Democrat Rangel (N.Y.) or committee member Matsui (D-Cal.) on labor and environmental provisions at what Democrats charged was partisan markup in Oct. Matsui is considered friend of high-tech industry and has record of supporting trade, and one lobbyist said in faulting Thomas: “If you don’t have Bob Matsui on your side you're not going to pass a bill.” Earlier this week Rangel again called for bipartisan talks on TPA but was rebuffed by Thomas. We were told that in closed-door meetings with industry executives, Thomas was extremely reluctant to hear criticism of his handling of TPA and insisted there was no more room for negotiations with Democrats. Thomas has insisted his bill is bipartisan and includes guidelines on labor and environmental issues, making moot further efforts by Rangel and Matsui.

Zoellick suggested industry should have to shoulder some of the blame if TPA failed. In speech to Business Software Alliance’s Global Tech Summit in Washington, he said House Democrats such as Rep. Eshoo (Cal.), who represent high-tech districts, had personally told him that they hadn’t heard from any constituents advocating TPA. “You've got 24 hours to let them hear from you on this,” Zoellick told packed hall of high- tech executives, only minutes after praising BSA and other associations for the lobbying they had done on behalf of TPA.

Meanwhile, Hastert’s office promoted fact that executives of rival high-tech firms -- Microsoft, Sun Microsystems, Oracle, Intel and Qualcomm -- co-signed letter to Democrats who had announced opposition to TPA, arguing legislation was essential to both high-tech industry and U.S. economic recovery.

Zoellick warned it would be almost impossible for his office to negotiate bilateral trade agreements without TPA because trading partners would be wary of one round of concessions with Zoellick and another spurred by congressional amendments. He insisted Thomas bill included language that would benefit labor and the environment, making them “a permanent feature of trade agreements.”