Rebecca Day

The National Retail Federation forecast 6%-8% sales growth for the Nov. 1-Dec. 31 holiday shopping season, to a total $942.6 billion-$960.4 billion in stores and online. Last year, retail sales -- excluding autos, gasoline and restaurants -- grew 13.5% vs. 2020 to a record $889.3 billion, NRF said.

Supply chain shortages that have strained the custom integration channel are likely to persist until next summer, said Brad Hintze, Crestron executive vice president-global marketing, on a rAVe Agency pro audio/video supply chain webinar last week.

Online holiday sales will grow at just 2.5% November-December, to an estimated $209.7 billion, said Adobe Analytics on a Wednesday webcast. “This is the slowest growth we’ve ever seen” in Adobe’s 10 years of doing modeling and “pretty much in the history of the internet,” said analyst Taylor Schreiner, saying online holiday sales growth typically averages “low teens to high teens.”

Imax’s box office receipts continue to reflect consumers’ return to experiences after a COVID-19 drop in theater attendance, with Q3 Imax gross box office rising 25% year on year to $177.1 million, the company reported Monday. Imax revenue grew 21% to $68.8 million from $56.6 million in the year-ago period.

Consumers expect to spend less on holiday gifts this holiday season, including on consumer electronics, said NPD Tuesday, citing the research firm’s annual holiday spending report report. U.S. consumers plan to spend $760 on average during the 2022 season vs. $785 last year.

Macroeconomic conditions are weighing on TV purchases, with LG and Samsung having Q3 revenue drops in their TV units last week as the traditional November-December holiday season kicks in.

Roku, set to report Q3 earnings Wednesday, is facing near-term challenges, including reduced variable advertising spending and inflationary pressure affecting smart TV sales and resulting user account growth, Wedbush analyst Michael Pachter wrote analysts Monday. The streaming platform company “continues to invest heavily, resulting in unpalatable results for investors,” Pachter said. Most of Roku’s ad revenue is derived from "the scatter market, and scatter budgets are the first to go when macroeconomic pressures hit," he said. Since Roku is a relatively new ad partner, "this hits Roku disproportionately versus traditional TV broadcasters." Wedbush expects Roku’s user base to grow globally to make it a “compelling outlet” for advertisers, he said. Once macroeconomic trends improve, Wedbush sees “significant runway ahead for shifting ad dollars from linear TV to digital,” and Roku is positioned to take growing share of that shift, he said. But shares will “remain rangebound” for the next few quarters, Pachter said, lowering the price target from $85 to $75, while maintaining an “outperform” rating on the stock. Shares closed 1.8% higher Monday at $55.44.

Amazon shares hit a 52-year low at $97.66 Friday after Q4 revenue guidance was below analysts’ projections. Shares closed 6.8% lower at $103.41. The revenue guidance for the holiday quarter is $140 billion-$148 billion, for 2%-8% growth, said Chief Financial Officer Brian Olsavsky on the company’s Thursday earnings call.

Supplies of iPhone 14 Pro and 14 Pro Max, which launched in September, are “going to be constrained for a little while,” said CEO Tim Cook on the company’s Thursday Q4 FY ’22 earnings call. The company is “working very hard to try to remedy that.” Silicon-related supply constraints “were not significant” for Apple in Q3, but logistics costs haven’t returned to pre-pandemic levels, and certain semiconductors are adding inflationary pressure, Cook said.

Pivotal Research Group raised Netflix to a “buy” from “sell,” analyst Jeffrey Wlodarczak wrote investors Wednesday. PRG increased its subscriber forecast from 5.5 million to 15 million on what it believes will be a successful conversion of “effective pirates” to paying subscribers, plus short-term subscriber benefits of launching its ad-supported service next week. Wlodarczak is concerned about “consumer churn” down to $7 ad-supported tiers, “particularly in a recession,” though that isn’t likely to be an issue until second-half 2023, he said. The analyst views competitor price hikes as “fundamentally positive.” Despite growing competition in the streaming video space, Netflix “provides the most unique and powerful streaming experience globally” and has the opportunity to accelerate subscriber growth over the next year, he said. Wlodarczak expects co-CEO Reed Hastings to “look to sell” the streaming service as early as 2024.